Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
